Berhane Yemane, Wall Stig, Fantahun Mesganaw, Emmelin Anders, Mekonnen Wubegzier, Högberg Ulf, Worku Alemayehu, Tesfaye Fikru, Molla Mitike, Deyessa Negussie, Kumie Abera, Hailemariam Damen, Enqueselassie Fikre, Byass Peter
Community Health Department, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Scand J Public Health. 2008 Jun;36(4):436-41. doi: 10.1177/1403494808089064.
To describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors.
A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years.
The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials.
This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development.
从死亡率及相关社会人口学因素方面描述1987年至2004年埃塞俄比亚农村人口的流行病学发展情况。
1987年确定了一个由10个社区组成的农村人口群体，此后通过定期的家庭走访对其进行跟踪。在首次人口普查后，以开放队列的方式记录出生、死亡和迁移事件以及关键背景因素。在总共超过70万人年的时间里观察了超过9.7万人。
从1987年到2004年，最初的28614人以平均每年3.64%的速度增长至54426人，且平均年龄也有所增加。出生率和死亡率下降，但仍受外部因素影响出现短期波动。总体死亡率为每千人年13.5人。一些成年年龄组死亡率的上升与艾滋病相关死亡人数的增加一致，但2002年新建的一家当地医院可能促使后来总体死亡率下降。性别、年龄组、时间段、识字率、水源、房屋所有权以及到城镇的距离均与死亡率差异显著相关。
这一人群在一代人的时间里经历了复杂的流行病学转变。这种详细的长期监测对于描述此类过程至关重要。许多显著影响死亡率的因素无法由卫生部门直接控制，只有随着总体发展才能改善。
