Fantahun M, Berhane Y, Högberg U, Wall S, Byass P
School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, PO Box 24762, Code 1000, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Public Health. 2009 Apr;123(4):326-30. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2008.10.019. Epub 2009 Feb 28.
This study assessed trends in survival to old age and identified the factors associated with longevity among the elderly (age > or = 65 years).
Cohort analysis of demographic surveillance data.
The study was conducted in the Butajira Rural Health Programme Demographic Surveillance Site in Ethiopia. Using data collected between 1987 and 2004, the probability of survival to 65 years and remaining life expectancy for women and men aged 65 years were computed. Cox regression analysis was used to assess survival by different factors.
Although the elderly represented 3% of the population, their person-time contribution increased by 48% over the 18-year period. Less than half reached 65 years of age, with remaining life expectancy at 65 years ranging from 15 years in rural men to 19 years in urban women. Rural residence, illiteracy and widowhood were associated with lower survival adjusted for other factors, whereas gender did not show a significant difference. However, the effect of these factors differed between men and women, as demonstrated by survival curves and Cox regression. Widowhood [hazard ratio (HR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.57] and illiteracy (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.86-2.73) affected males to a greater extent than females, and rural residence was associated with poorer female survival (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.55-1.83).
The number of elderly people is increasing in Ethiopia, with the chance of survival into older age being similar between men and women and approaching that in developed countries. However, rural women and illiterate women and men, particularly widowers, are disadvantaged in terms of survival.
本研究评估了老年人（年龄≥65岁）活到高龄的趋势，并确定了与长寿相关的因素。
对人口监测数据进行队列分析。
该研究在埃塞俄比亚的布塔吉拉农村卫生项目人口监测点开展。利用1987年至2004年收集的数据，计算了活到65岁的概率以及65岁女性和男性的剩余预期寿命。采用Cox回归分析评估不同因素对生存的影响。
尽管老年人占人口的3%，但在18年期间他们的人时贡献增加了48%。不到一半的人活到65岁，65岁时的剩余预期寿命从农村男性的15岁到城市女性的19岁不等。在调整其他因素后，农村居住、文盲和丧偶与较低的生存率相关，而性别未显示出显著差异。然而，正如生存曲线和Cox回归所示，这些因素对男性和女性的影响有所不同。丧偶（风险比[HR] 2.02，95%置信区间[CI] 1.59 - 2.57）和文盲（HR 2.26，95% CI 1.86 - 2.73）对男性的影响大于女性，农村居住与女性较差的生存率相关（HR 1.68，95% CI 1.55 - 1.83）。
埃塞俄比亚的老年人数量正在增加，男性和女性活到高龄的机会相似，且接近发达国家的水平。然而，农村妇女以及文盲妇女和男子，特别是鳏夫，在生存方面处于不利地位。
