Johnson Matthew W, Bickel Warren K
Behavioral Pharmacology Research Unit, John Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21224-6823, USA.
Exp Clin Psychopharmacol. 2008 Jun;16(3):264-74. doi: 10.1037/1064-1297.16.3.264.
Several [corrected] discounting studies have use the R2 measure to identify data [corrected] with poor fits to a mathematical discounting model as nonsystematic data to be eliminated [corrected] Data from three previous delay-discounting studies (six separate groups, with a total of 161 individuals) were used to demonstrate why using R2 to assess the fits of discounting data is problematic. A significant, positive correlation between discounting rate parameter and R2 was found in most groups, showing that R2 is more stringent as a measure of fit for low discounting rates than for high discounting rates. Furthermore, it is suggested that identifying nonsystematic data based on any measure of fit to a mathematical discounting model may be problematic because it confounds discounting rate comparison with the issue of discounting model assessment. Therefore, a model-free method to identify nonsystematic data is needed. An algorithm for identifying nonsystematic data is presented that is based on the expectation of a monotonically decreasing discounting function. This algorithm identified 13 cases out of the 161 reanalyzed data sets as nonsystematic. These nonsystematic data are presented, along with examples of data not identified as nonsystematic. This algorithm, or modifications of it, may be useful in a variety of human and nonhuman animal discounting studies (e.g., delay discounting, probability discounting) as an alternative to the R2 measure for identifying nonsystematic data. The algorithm may be used in empirical investigations to improve discounting methodology, and may be used to identify outliers to be removed from analyses.
一些[已修正]折扣研究使用R2度量来识别与数学折扣模型拟合不佳的数据,将其作为要剔除的非系统性数据。来自之前三项延迟折扣研究(六个独立组,共161名个体)的数据被用来证明为何使用R2评估折扣数据的拟合存在问题。在大多数组中发现折扣率参数与R2之间存在显著的正相关,这表明作为拟合度量,R2对低折扣率的要求比对高折扣率更为严格。此外,有人提出,基于与数学折扣模型的任何拟合度量来识别非系统性数据可能存在问题,因为它将折扣率比较与折扣模型评估问题混淆了。因此,需要一种无模型方法来识别非系统性数据。本文提出了一种基于单调递减折扣函数预期的非系统性数据识别算法。该算法在重新分析的161个数据集中识别出13个案例为非系统性数据。展示了这些非系统性数据以及未被识别为非系统性的数据示例。该算法或其修改版本,作为识别非系统性数据的R2度量的替代方法,可能在各种人类和非人类动物折扣研究(如延迟折扣、概率折扣)中有用。该算法可用于实证研究以改进折扣方法,也可用于识别要从分析中剔除的异常值。