Gilligan Christopher A, van den Bosch Frank
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EA, United Kingdom.
Annu Rev Phytopathol. 2008;46:385-418. doi: 10.1146/annurev.phyto.45.062806.094357.
Motivated by questions such as "Why do some diseases take off, while others die out?" and "How can we optimize the deployment of control methods," we introduce simple epidemiological concepts for the invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. An overarching modeling framework is then presented that can be used to analyze disease invasion and persistence at a range of scales from the microscopic to the regional. Criteria for invasion and persistence are introduced, initially for simple models of epidemics, and then for models with greater biological realism. Some ways in which epidemiological models are used to identify optimal strategies for the control of disease are discussed. Particular attention is given to the spatial structure of host populations and to the role of chance events in determining invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. Finally, three brief case studies are used to illustrate the practical applications of epidemiological theory to understand invasion and persistence of plant pathogens. These comprise long-term predictions for the persistence and control of Dutch elm disease; identification of methods to manage the spread of rhizomania on sugar beet in the U.K. by matching the scale of control with the spatial and temporal scales of the disease; and analysis of evolutionary change in virus control to identify risks of inadvertent selection for damaging virus strains.
受“为什么有些疾病会流行，而有些却会消失？”以及“我们如何优化控制方法的部署？”等问题的启发，我们引入了关于植物病原体入侵和持续存在的简单流行病学概念。接着提出了一个总体建模框架，可用于分析从微观到区域等一系列尺度上的疾病入侵和持续存在情况。介绍了入侵和持续存在的标准，首先针对简单的流行病模型，然后针对具有更高生物学真实性的模型。讨论了一些利用流行病学模型确定疾病控制最优策略的方法。特别关注宿主种群的空间结构以及偶然事件在决定植物病原体入侵和持续存在方面的作用。最后，通过三个简短的案例研究来说明流行病学理论在理解植物病原体入侵和持续存在方面的实际应用。这些案例包括对荷兰榆树病持续存在和控制的长期预测；通过使控制规模与疾病的时空尺度相匹配来确定英国控制甜菜根瘤病传播的方法；以及分析病毒控制中的进化变化以识别意外选择有害病毒株的风险。
