Gilligan Christopher A
Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2008 Feb 27;363(1492):741-59. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2181.
The potential for modern biology to identify new sources for genetical, chemical and biological control of plant disease is remarkably high. Successful implementation of these methods within globally and locally changing agricultural environments demands new approaches to durable control. This, in turn, requires fusion of population genetics and epidemiology at a range of scales from the field to the landscape and even to continental deployment of control measures. It also requires an understanding of economic and social constraints that influence the deployment of control. Here I propose an epidemiological framework to model invasion, persistence and variability of epidemics that encompasses a wide range of scales and topologies through which disease spreads. By considering how to map control methods onto epidemiological parameters and variables, some new approaches towards optimizing the efficiency of control at the landscape scale are introduced. Epidemiological strategies to minimize the risks of failure of chemical and genetical control are presented and some consequences of heterogeneous selection pressures in time and space on the persistence and evolutionary changes of the pathogen population are discussed. Finally, some approaches towards embedding epidemiological models for the deployment of control in an economically plausible framework are presented.
现代生物学识别植物病害遗传、化学和生物防治新来源的潜力非常高。要在全球和当地不断变化的农业环境中成功实施这些方法，需要采用新的持久防治方法。反过来，这需要在从田间到景观甚至到大陆范围的控制措施部署等一系列尺度上融合群体遗传学和流行病学。这还需要了解影响控制措施部署的经济和社会制约因素。在此，我提出一个流行病学框架，用于对流行病的入侵、持续存在和变异性进行建模，该框架涵盖了疾病传播所经过的广泛尺度和拓扑结构。通过考虑如何将控制方法映射到流行病学参数和变量上，引入了一些在景观尺度上优化控制效率的新方法。提出了将化学和遗传防治失败风险降至最低的流行病学策略，并讨论了时空异质选择压力对病原菌种群持续存在和进化变化的一些影响。最后，介绍了一些将用于控制措施部署的流行病学模型嵌入经济合理框架的方法。
