Poolman Eric M, Elbasha Elamin H, Galvani Alison P
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, 60 College Street, New Haven, CT 06520-8034, USA.
Vaccine. 2008 Jul 18;26 Suppl 3:C25-30. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.04.010.
New and upcoming vaccines provide protection against types 16 and 18 of human papillomavirus (HPV), which are responsible for an estimated 70% of all cervical cancers. One vaccine also protects against HPV types 6 and 11, which cause more than 90% of genital warts. We use a mathematical model of HPV transmission and immunity to explore the effect of vaccination on the evolution of HPV types. If vaccination provides cross-immunity at least equal to that of natural infection, it may contract the niche space available to other HPV types a million-fold. If natural infection provides greater cross-immunity than vaccination, vaccination may expand available niche space up to 470-fold. The balance of epidemiologic data suggests vaccination will reduce the available niche space.
新的和即将推出的疫苗可预防16型和18型人乳头瘤病毒（HPV），据估计，所有宫颈癌中有70%是由这两种病毒引起的。有一种疫苗还可预防6型和11型HPV，这两种病毒导致了90%以上的尖锐湿疣。我们使用HPV传播和免疫的数学模型来探索疫苗接种对HPV类型演变的影响。如果疫苗接种提供的交叉免疫至少与自然感染相当，它可能会将其他HPV类型可用的生态位空间缩小一百万倍。如果自然感染提供的交叉免疫比疫苗接种更强，疫苗接种可能会将可用的生态位空间扩大多达470倍。流行病学数据的平衡表明，疫苗接种将减少可用的生态位空间。
