Wernet Gregor, Hellweg Stefanie, Fischer Ulrich, Papadokonstantakis Stavros, Hungerbühler Konrad
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Safety and Environmental Technology Group, HCI G143, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 10, CH-8093 Zurich.
Environ Sci Technol. 2008 Sep 1;42(17):6717-22. doi: 10.1021/es7022362.
Chemical synthesis is a complex and diverse procedure, and production data are often scarce or incomplete. A detailed inventory analysis of all mass and energy flows necessary for the production of chemicals is often costly and time-intensive. Therefore only few chemical inventories exist, even though they are essential for process optimization and the environmental assessment of many products. This paper introduces a newtype of model to provide estimates for inventory data and environmental impacts of chemical production based on the molecular structure of a chemical and without a priori knowledge of the production process. These molecular-structure-based models offer inventory data for users in process design and optimization, screening life cycle assessment (LCA), and supply chain management. They can be applied even if the producer is unknown or the production process is not documented. We assessed the capabilities of linear regression and neural network models for this purpose. All models were generated with a data set of inventory data on 103 chemicals. Different input sets were chosen as ways to transform the chemical structure into a numerical vector of descriptors and the effectiveness of the different input sets was analyzed. The results show that a correctly developed neural network model can perform on an acceptable level for many purposes. The models can assist process developers to improve energy efficiency in all design stages and aid in LCA and supply chain management by filling data gaps.
化学合成是一个复杂多样的过程,生产数据往往稀缺或不完整。对化学品生产所需的所有质量和能量流进行详细的清单分析通常成本高昂且耗时。因此,尽管化学品清单对于许多产品的工艺优化和环境评估至关重要,但现存的却很少。本文介绍了一种新型模型,可基于化学品的分子结构,在无需事先了解生产过程的情况下,对化学品生产的清单数据和环境影响进行估算。这些基于分子结构的模型为工艺设计与优化、筛选生命周期评估(LCA)及供应链管理中的用户提供清单数据。即便生产商未知或生产过程未记录,它们也能应用。为此,我们评估了线性回归模型和神经网络模型的能力。所有模型均由103种化学品的清单数据集生成。选择了不同的输入集作为将化学结构转化为描述符数值向量的方法,并分析了不同输入集的有效性。结果表明,正确开发的神经网络模型在许多方面都能达到可接受的水平。这些模型可协助工艺开发人员在所有设计阶段提高能源效率,并通过填补数据空白助力生命周期评估和供应链管理。