Martino Steven C, Elliott Marc N, Collins Rebecca L, Kanouse David E, Berry Sandra H
RAND, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665, USA.
J Adolesc Health. 2008 Oct;43(4):341-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2008.02.018. Epub 2008 Jun 5.
We examine longitudinal relationships between virginity pledging in adolescence and both sexual initiation and condom use. Prior studies have had mixed results and may not adequately control for prepledge differences between pledgers and nonpledgers.
Data came from a national sample of 12- to 17-year-olds surveyed in 2001 and reinterviewed 1 and 3 years later. Logistic regression models estimated the association between making a pledge and each outcome. Selection bias was reduced through propensity-score weighting and a rich set of demographic and psychosocial covariates.
Pledgers and nonpledgers differed substantially in preexisting characteristics. However, after propensity weighting and statistical controls, pledging was still associated with delayed intercourse. We estimate that in the absence of pledging 42.4% of virgins with characteristics indicating an inclination to pledge initiate intercourse within 3 years; in the presence of the pledge, 33.6% of such youth initiate intercourse. Among those who had sex during this period, pledging was unassociated with condom use. Among those who did not have sex during this period, pledging was unassociated with engagement in noncoital sexual behavior.
Making a virginity pledge appears to be an effective means of delaying sexual intercourse initiation among those inclined to pledge without influencing other sexual behavior; pledging does not appear to affect sexual safety among pledgers who fail to remain abstinent.
我们研究青少年贞操宣誓与首次性行为及避孕套使用之间的纵向关系。先前的研究结果不一，可能未充分控制宣誓者与非宣誓者在宣誓前的差异。
数据来自2001年对12至17岁青少年的全国抽样调查，并在1年和3年后进行重新访谈。逻辑回归模型估计了宣誓与各结果之间的关联。通过倾向得分加权以及一系列丰富的人口统计学和心理社会协变量，减少了选择偏差。
宣誓者和非宣誓者在既有特征上存在显著差异。然而，经过倾向加权和统计控制后，宣誓仍与性行为延迟有关。我们估计，在没有宣誓的情况下，42.4%具有表明有宣誓倾向特征的处女在3年内开始性行为；在有宣誓的情况下，此类青少年中有33.6%开始性行为。在此期间发生性行为的人中，宣誓与避孕套使用无关。在此期间没有发生性行为的人中，宣誓与非性交性行为的参与无关。
进行贞操宣誓似乎是一种有效的手段，可以在不影响其他性行为的情况下，延迟有宣誓倾向者的首次性行为开始时间；对于未能保持禁欲的宣誓者，宣誓似乎不会影响其性安全。
