Rosenbaum Janet E
Harvard Statistics Department, 1 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2006 Jun;96(6):1098-103. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2005.063305. Epub 2006 May 2.
We examined retractions of virginity pledges and of sexual histories among adolescents taking part in waves 1 and 2 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health.
Logistic regression analyses were used to compare respondents' reports of virginity pledges and sexual histories at waves 1 and 2.Results. Among wave 1 virginity pledgers, 53% denied having made a pledge at wave 2; after control for confounders, pledgers who subsequently initiated sexual activity were 3 times as likely to deny having made a pledge as those who did not initiate sexual activity (odds ratio [OR] = 3.21; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.04, 5.04). Among wave 1 nonvirgins who subsequently took virginity pledges, 28% retracted their sexual histories at wave 2; respondents who took virginity pledges were almost 4 times as likely as those who did not to retract reports of sexual experience (OR=3.88; 95% CI=1.87, 8.07).
Adolescents who initiate sexual activity are likely to recant virginity pledges, whereas those who take pledges are likely to recant their sexual histories. Thus, evaluations of sexual abstinence programs are vulnerable to unreliable data. In addition, virginity pledgers may incorrectly assess the sexually transmitted disease risks associated with their prepledge sexual behavior.
我们研究了参与青少年健康全国纵向研究第1波和第2波调查的青少年中童贞誓言和性经历的反悔情况。
采用逻辑回归分析比较第1波和第2波调查中受访者关于童贞誓言和性经历的报告。结果。在第1波童贞誓言宣誓者中,53%在第2波调查中否认曾许下誓言;在控制混杂因素后,随后开始性行为的宣誓者否认曾许下誓言的可能性是未开始性行为者的3倍(优势比[OR]=3.21;95%置信区间[CI]=2.04,5.04)。在第1波非童贞者中,随后许下童贞誓言的人中有28%在第2波调查中反悔了他们的性经历;许下童贞誓言的受访者反悔性经历报告的可能性几乎是未许下誓言者的4倍(OR=3.88;95%CI=1.87,8.07)。
开始性行为的青少年可能会撤回童贞誓言,而许下誓言的青少年可能会反悔他们的性经历。因此,对性禁欲项目的评估容易受到不可靠数据的影响。此外,童贞誓言宣誓者可能会错误评估与其宣誓前性行为相关的性传播疾病风险。