Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of lung cancer mortality in the U.S., 1968-1986. Rising lung cancer mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for lung cancer (LC) in the United States from 1968 to 1986 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted LC mortality rate distributions between age 20 and 50 years were determined by a variable environmental factor and a common intersect point. The environmental factor declined (improved) 1.89-fold for men and 3.11-fold for women in 1986 as compared to 1968. The age at the common intersect point was 47.2 years for men and 39.1 years for women. Between 1968 and 1986, the non-age-standardized annual crude LC mortality rate increased 44.8% for men and 217.6% for women. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of LC mortality data suggests that the rising LC mortality rates in the United States are the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics and not a reflection of an environment that is directly more conductive to LC mortality. That is, more people are dying of LC because they are not dying from other diseases such as ischemic heart disease and stroke. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis demonstrates that single disease mortality should not be studied in isolation, but rather examined in relation to other causes of death. When viewed from this perspective, the basis for the more dramatic rise in LC mortality in women becomes immediately evident.