Riggs J E
Department of Neurology, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown 26506.
Mech Ageing Dev. 1991 Dec 2;61(2):197-208. doi: 10.1016/0047-6374(91)90017-t.
Pancreatic cancer (PanC) is an extraordinarily lethal neoplasm that is currently the fifth leading cause of cancer death in the United States. Annual age-specific mortality rates for PanC in the U.S. from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-specific PanC mortality rate distributions between age 30 and 60 years were determined by a common fixed intersect point and a variable competitive factor. The intersect point for PanC occurred at age 59.5 years and mortality rate 37.4 per 100,000 for men, and at age 53.2 years and mortality rate 7.9 per 100,000 for women. These intersect points are determined by genetic and environmental influences upon mortality. The observation that these points have remained fixed suggests that there has been no significant alteration in environmental etiopathogenic influences upon PanC mortality. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis suggests that the emergence of PanC in the U.S. as a significant cause of cancer mortality has been the consequence of competitive influences upon PanC mortality dynamics.
胰腺癌（PanC）是一种极其致命的肿瘤，目前是美国癌症死亡的第五大主要原因。对1962年至1987年美国胰腺癌的年龄特异性年死亡率进行了纵向冈珀茨分析。30至60岁之间的年龄特异性胰腺癌死亡率分布由一个共同的固定交点和一个可变竞争因素决定。胰腺癌的交点在男性中出现在59.5岁，死亡率为每10万人37.4例；在女性中出现在53.2岁，死亡率为每10万人7.9例。这些交点由遗传和环境对死亡率的影响决定。这些点保持固定的观察结果表明，环境病因对胰腺癌死亡率的影响没有显著变化。纵向冈珀茨分析表明，胰腺癌在美国成为癌症死亡的一个重要原因是对胰腺癌死亡率动态的竞争影响的结果。
