Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of prostate cancer mortality in the U.S., 1962-1987: a method of demonstrating relative environmental, genetic and competitive influences upon mortality.

Age-specific mortality rates for prostate cancer (PC) in the United States from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-specific PC mortality rate distributions between age 55 and 85 years were determined by a variable competitive factor and a common intersect point. The intersect point for PC occurred at age 61.5 years and mortality rate 27.9 per 100,000 and reflects genetic and environmental influences upon mortality. Between 1962 and 1987, non-age-standardized annual crude PC mortality rates increased 41.6%. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis suggests that rising PC mortality rates in the United States are the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics. Moreover, longitudinal Gompertzian analysis is a method that demonstrates the relative contribution of environmental, genetic and competitive influences upon disease specific mortality.