Hall H Irene, An Qian, Hutchinson Angela B, Sansom Stephanie
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2008 Nov 1;49(3):294-7. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e3181893f17.
We estimated lifetime risk and age-conditional risk of being diagnosed with HIV in 33 states with name-based HIV reporting.
We used vital statistics data on general and HIV-specific mortality, census data, and HIV surveillance data to calculate cross-sectional, period-specific (2004-2005), and age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births, and estimates were derived for the lifetime risk, from birth, of being diagnosed with HIV.
The estimated lifetime risk of being diagnosed with HIV was 1.87% for males (95% confidence limit: 1.86 to 1.89) or 1 in 53 males and 0.71% for females (95% confidence limit: 0.70-0.72) or 1 in 141 females. Blacks and Hispanics experienced higher estimated lifetime risk of HIV than whites: 6.23% or 1 in 16 for blacks, 2.88% or 1 in 35 for Hispanics, 0.96% or 1 in 104 for white males; 3.29% or 1 in 30 for blacks, 0.88% or 1 in 114 for Hispanics, and 0.17% or 1 in 588 for white females. The highest risk of HIV diagnosis was observed among people in their 30s.
These estimates may help to communicate the risk of HIV infection to affected communities, increase public awareness, and promote early detection and prevention efforts for HIV.
我们在33个基于姓名报告艾滋病病毒（HIV）的州中，估算了被诊断感染HIV的终生风险和年龄条件风险。
我们使用了关于一般死亡率和HIV特异性死亡率的生命统计数据、人口普查数据以及HIV监测数据，来计算HIV诊断的横断面、特定时期（2004 - 2005年）和特定年龄的概率。这些概率应用于一个假设的1000万活产队列，并得出从出生起被诊断感染HIV的终生风险估计值。
男性被诊断感染HIV的估计终生风险为1.87%（95%置信区间：1.86至1.89），即53名男性中有1人；女性为0.71%（95%置信区间：0.70 - 0.72），即141名女性中有1人。黑人和西班牙裔人群感染HIV的估计终生风险高于白人：黑人中为6.23%或16人中有1人，西班牙裔为2.88%或35人中有1人，白人男性为0.96%或104人中有1人；黑人女性中为3.29%或30人中有1人，西班牙裔为0.88%或114人中有1人，白人女性为0.17%或588人中有1人。30多岁的人群中HIV诊断风险最高。
这些估计值可能有助于向受影响社区传达HIV感染风险，提高公众意识，并促进HIV的早期检测和预防工作。
