美国艾滋病毒感染诊断的终生风险。
Lifetime risk of a diagnosis of HIV infection in the United States.
作者信息
Hess Kristen L, Hu Xiaohong, Lansky Amy, Mermin Jonathan, Hall Hildegard Irene
机构信息
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA.
出版信息
Ann Epidemiol. 2017 Apr;27(4):238-243. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2017.02.003. Epub 2017 Feb 21.
Abstract
PURPOSE
To estimate lifetime risk of receiving an HIV diagnosis in the United States if existing infection rates continue.
METHODS
We used mortality, census, and HIV surveillance data for 2010 to 2014 to calculate age-specific probabilities of an HIV diagnosis. The probabilities were applied to a hypothetical cohort of 10 million live births to estimate lifetime risk.
RESULTS
Lifetime risk was 1 in 68 for males and 1 in 253 for females. Lifetime risk for men was 1 in 22 for blacks, 1 in 51 for Hispanic/Latinos, and 1 in 140 for whites; and for women was 1 in 54 for blacks, 1 in 256 for Hispanic/Latinas, and 1 in 941 for whites. By risk group, the highest risk was among men who have sex with men (1 in 6) and the lowest was among male heterosexuals (1 in 524). Most of the states with the highest lifetime risk were in the South.
CONCLUSIONS
The estimates highlight different risks across populations and the need for continued improvements in prevention and treatment. They can also be used to communicate the risk of HIV infection and increase public awareness of HIV.
摘要
目的
估计如果现有感染率持续下去，美国人群获得艾滋病病毒（HIV）诊断的终生风险。
方法
我们使用了2010年至2014年的死亡率、人口普查和HIV监测数据来计算特定年龄的HIV诊断概率。将这些概率应用于一个假设的1000万活产队列，以估计终生风险。
结果
男性的终生风险为1/68，女性为1/253。黑人男性的终生风险为1/22，西班牙裔/拉丁裔为1/51，白人男性为1/140；黑人女性的终生风险为1/54，西班牙裔/拉丁裔女性为1/256，白人女性为1/941。按风险群体划分，风险最高的是男男性行为者（1/6），最低的是男性异性恋者（1/524）。终生风险最高的大多数州位于南部。
结论
这些估计突出了不同人群的不同风险以及持续改进预防和治疗的必要性。它们还可用于传达HIV感染风险并提高公众对HIV的认识。
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