Morens David M, Folkers Gregory K, Fauci Anthony S
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Lancet Infect Dis. 2008 Nov;8(11):710-9. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(08)70256-1.
Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, and their determinants, have recently attracted substantial scientific and popular attention. HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, H5N1 avian influenza, and many other emerging diseases have either proved fatal or caused international alarm. Common and interactive co-determinants of disease emergence, including population growth, travel, and environmental disruption, have been increasingly documented and studied. Are emerging infections a new phenomenon related to modern life, or do more basic determinants, transcending time, place, and human progress, govern disease generation? By examining a number of historically notable epidemics, we suggest that emerging diseases, similar in their novelty, impact, and elicitation of control responses, have occurred throughout recorded history. Fundamental determinants, typically acting in concert, seem to underlie their emergence, and infections such as these are likely to continue to remain challenges to human survival.
新出现和再度出现的传染病及其决定因素，最近引起了科学界和公众的广泛关注。艾滋病毒/艾滋病、严重急性呼吸综合征、H5N1禽流感以及许多其他新出现的疾病，要么已被证明是致命的，要么引起了国际社会的恐慌。越来越多的文献记录和研究表明，疾病出现的常见和相互作用的共同决定因素，包括人口增长、旅行和环境破坏。新出现的感染是与现代生活相关的新现象，还是存在超越时间、地点和人类进步的更基本的决定因素来支配疾病的发生？通过研究一些历史上著名的流行病，我们认为，在新奇性、影响以及引发控制反应方面相似的新出现疾病，在有记录的历史中一直都有发生。基本决定因素通常共同起作用，似乎是它们出现的基础，而这类感染很可能继续对人类生存构成挑战。
