Brownstein John S, Holford Theodore R, Fish Durland
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, 06520.
Ecohealth. 2005 Mar;2(1):38-46. doi: 10.1007/s10393-004-0139-x.
An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climate-based logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and produce forecasts of vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (p<0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080's. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from southern United States, and movement into the central United States. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tick-borne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.
了解气候变化对北美莱姆病主要传播媒介肩突硬蜱的影响，是评估人类感染该疾病风险空间分布变化的一个基本要素。我们使用肩突硬蜱的气候适宜性模型，来研究全球气候变化对北美未来莱姆病风险的潜在影响。首先使用基于气候的逻辑模型来解释肩突硬蜱目前在北美的分布情况。然后应用气候变化情景对该模型进行时间外推，并生成媒介建立情况的预测。肩突硬蜱存在情况与大规模环境数据之间的空间建模关系，得出了目前肩突硬蜱在北美全境的分布模式，准确率为89%（p<0.0001）。模型外推显示，到2080年代，肩突硬蜱将大幅向北扩展至加拿大，适宜栖息地增加213%。气候变化还将导致该媒介从美国南部退缩，并向美国中部移动。本报告预测了气候变化对莱姆病风险的影响，并特别预测了加拿大将出现一种蜱传传染病。因此，我们的建模方法可用于勾勒出未来需要实施控制策略和预防措施的地点。
