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天气模式与军团病:一项气象学研究。

Weather patterns and Legionnaires' disease: a meteorological study.

作者信息

Ricketts K D, Charlett A, Gelb D, Lane C, Lee J V, Joseph C A

机构信息

Respiratory and Systemic Infections Department, Centre for Infections Health Protection Agency, London, UK.

出版信息

Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Jul;137(7):1003-12. doi: 10.1017/S095026880800157X. Epub 2008 Nov 19.

Abstract

This study examined the impact of meteorological conditions on sporadic, community-acquired cases of Legionnaires' disease in England and Wales (2003-2006), with reference to the 2006 increase in cases. A case-crossover methodology compared each case with self-controlled data using a conditional logistic regression analysis. Effect modification by quarter and year was explored. In total, 674 cases were entered into the dataset and two meteorological variables were selected for study based on preliminary analyses: relative humidity during a case's incubation period, and temperature during the 10-14 weeks preceding onset. For the quarter July-September there was strong evidence to suggest a year, humidity and temperature interaction (Wald chi2=30.59, 3 d.f., P<0.0001). These findings have implications for future case numbers and resource requirements.

摘要

本研究参考2006年军团病病例的增加情况,调查了气象条件对英格兰和威尔士散发性社区获得性军团病病例(2003 - 2006年)的影响。采用病例交叉方法,通过条件逻辑回归分析将每个病例与其自身对照数据进行比较。探讨了季度和年份的效应修正。总共674例病例被纳入数据集,并根据初步分析选择了两个气象变量进行研究:病例潜伏期的相对湿度,以及发病前10 - 14周的温度。对于7 - 9月这一季度,有充分证据表明存在年份、湿度和温度的交互作用(Wald卡方 = 30.59,自由度为3,P < 0.0001)。这些发现对未来的病例数量和资源需求具有启示意义。

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