Gaissmaier Wolfgang, Schooler Lael J
Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.
Cognition. 2008 Dec;109(3):416-22. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2008.09.007. Epub 2008 Nov 18.
Probability matching is a classic choice anomaly that has been studied extensively. While many approaches assume that it is a cognitive shortcut driven by cognitive limitations, recent literature suggests that it is not a strategy per se, but rather another outcome of people's well-documented misperception of randomness. People search for patterns even in random sequences, which results in probability matching at the outcome level. Previous studies have supported this by the finding that distracting people with a secondary verbal working memory task presumably prevents the pattern search, resulting in more maximizing behavior that is considered more rational. The current paper demonstrates with two experiments that there is actually truth in both accounts. For some participants, probability matching indeed seems to be the result of a cognitive shortcut, a simple "win-stay, lose-shift" strategy, and in one experiment identified these as participants low in working memory capacity. For others, however, a potentially smart pattern search strategy underlies probability matching. These probability matchers (who still look irrational in the absence of patterns) actually have a higher chance of finding a pattern if one exists. Contrary to the almost uniformly negative perception of probability matching, we therefore conclude that there can be a potentially smart strategy behind probability matching.
概率匹配是一种经典的选择异常现象，已得到广泛研究。虽然许多方法认为它是由认知局限驱动的认知捷径，但最近的文献表明，它本身并非一种策略，而是人们对随机性的错误认知这一有充分记录的现象的另一种结果。人们即使在随机序列中也会寻找模式，这导致在结果层面出现概率匹配。先前的研究通过以下发现支持了这一点：用次要的言语工作记忆任务分散人们的注意力大概会阻止模式搜索，从而导致更多被认为更理性的最大化行为。本文通过两个实验表明，这两种说法实际上都有道理。对于一些参与者来说，概率匹配确实似乎是认知捷径的结果，是一种简单的“赢则继续，输则改变”策略，并且在一个实验中，将这些参与者识别为工作记忆容量较低的人。然而，对于另一些人来说，概率匹配背后存在一种潜在的明智模式搜索策略。这些概率匹配者（在没有模式的情况下看起来仍然不理性）如果存在模式，实际上有更高的机会找到它。与对概率匹配几乎一致的负面看法相反，因此我们得出结论，概率匹配背后可能存在一种明智的策略。
