Department of Comparative Language Science, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Center for the Interdisciplinary Study of Language Evolution, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jul 30;12(1):13092. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-16983-w.
Probability matching has long been taken as a prime example of irrational behaviour in human decision making; however, its nature and uniqueness in the animal world is still much debated. In this paper we report a set of four preregistered experiments testing adult humans and Guinea baboons on matched probability learning tasks, manipulating task complexity (binary or ternary prediction tasks) and reinforcement procedures (with and without corrective feedback). Our findings suggest that probability matching behaviour within primate species is restricted to humans and the simplest possible binary prediction tasks; utility-maximising is seen in more complex tasks for humans as pattern-search becomes more effortful, and we observe it across the board in baboons, altogether suggesting that it is a cognitively less demanding strategy. These results provide further evidence that neither human nor non-human primates default to probability matching; however, unlike other primates, adult humans probability match when the cost of pattern search is low.
概率匹配长期以来一直被视为人类决策中不合理行为的主要例子；然而，其在动物世界中的本质和独特性仍存在很大争议。在本文中，我们报告了一组四项预先注册的实验，在匹配概率学习任务中测试成年人类和豚尾猴，操纵任务复杂性（二进制或三进制预测任务）和强化程序（有和没有纠错反馈）。我们的发现表明，灵长类物种内的概率匹配行为仅限于人类和最简单的可能的二进制预测任务；对于人类来说，在更复杂的任务中，效用最大化会出现，因为模式搜索变得更加费力，我们在豚尾猴中也观察到了这一点，这表明它是一种认知要求较低的策略。这些结果进一步证明，无论是人类还是非人类灵长类动物都不会默认概率匹配；然而，与其他灵长类动物不同，当模式搜索的成本较低时，成年人类会进行概率匹配。
