Funk James R, Cormier Joseph M, Gabler Hampton C
Biodynamic Research Corporation, San Antonio, Texas, USA.
Ann Adv Automot Med. 2008 Oct;52:155-64.
The most important factor in predicting the risk of injury or death in a frontal crash is the crash severity, which is expressed as the velocity change, or delta-V, experienced by the vehicle during the crash. The National Automotive Sampling System (NASS) is the largest database in the world linking injury outcomes with delta-Vs, which are obtained from field reconstructions. The accuracy of these reconstructions was assessed by analyzing 228 NASS cases involving single event frontal crashes in which the vehicle's frontal delta-V was also measured directly by an onboard event data recorder (EDR). Compared to the EDR measurements, the delta-V values in NASS averaged 19% lower with a standard deviation of 8.6 kph. The effect of this error on injury and fatality risk calculations was investigated using NASS data from 1997 - 2006 for frontal crashes with a known delta-V. Injury and fatality risk functions were calculated by curve fitting the distributions of the delta-V values associated with injury and fatality incidence normalized by the fitted crash exposure distribution. Individual delta-V values were linearly scaled to correct for the bias error, and the delta-V distributions were corrected for scatter error using a numerical deconvolution technique. Correcting for delta-V bias error shifted the calculated risk curves to the right and correcting for delta-V scatter error shifted the curves back to the left, but to a lesser extent. The effects of occupant age, gender, and belt use on injury and fatality risk were substantial.
预测正面碰撞中受伤或死亡风险的最重要因素是碰撞严重程度，它表示为车辆在碰撞过程中经历的速度变化，即速度增量（delta-V）。国家汽车抽样系统（NASS）是世界上最大的将伤害结果与速度增量联系起来的数据库，这些速度增量是通过现场重建获得的。通过分析228例涉及单一事件正面碰撞的NASS案例评估了这些重建的准确性，在这些案例中，车辆的正面速度增量也由车载事件数据记录器（EDR）直接测量。与EDR测量值相比，NASS中的速度增量值平均低19%，标准差为8.6公里/小时。利用1997年至2006年NASS中已知速度增量的正面碰撞数据，研究了这种误差对伤害和死亡风险计算的影响。通过对与伤害和死亡发生率相关的速度增量值分布进行曲线拟合来计算伤害和死亡风险函数，该分布通过拟合的碰撞暴露分布进行归一化。对各个速度增量值进行线性缩放以校正偏差误差，并使用数值反卷积技术对速度增量分布进行散射误差校正。校正速度增量偏差误差使计算出的风险曲线向右移动，校正速度增量散射误差使曲线向左移动，但程度较小。乘员年龄、性别和安全带使用情况对伤害和死亡风险的影响很大。
