Virginia Tech, 325 Stanger St., Kelly Hall 440 MC 0194, 24061, Blacksburg, United States.
Virginia Tech, 325 Stanger St., Kelly Hall 440 MC 0194, 24061, Blacksburg, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Apr;138:105434. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2020.105434. Epub 2020 Feb 25.
The objective of this paper was to develop an injury risk model relating real world injury outcomes in near-side crashes with U.S. New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) test performance, crash, and occupant properties. The study was motivated by the longer-term goal of predicting injury outcomes in a future fleet in which all vehicles are expected to have passive safety performance equivalent to a 5-star NCAP rating level (the highest star rating and lowest risk of injury). The dataset used to evaluate injury risk was the National Automotive Sampling System / Crashworthiness Data System (NASS/CDS). Case years 2010-2015 were used. An injured occupant was defined as a vehicle occupant who experienced an injury of maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) of 2 or greater, or who were fatally injured. Injury severity was scored using AIS-2005 (2008 update). Cases were selected in which front-row occupants of late-model vehicles were exposed to a near-side crash. Logistic regression was used to develop an injury model with delta-v, belt status, age, and gender as predictor variables. The side crash performance of each vehicle was identified and added to the model by matching each case with the associated performance in the NCAP moving deformable barrier side impact crash test. NCAP MDB test performance, delta-v, and occupant age, sex, and BMI were found to be significant predictors of injury risk. The effect of a 5 % higher risk in the MDB test (approximately one star rating worse) was comparable to a 2.84 km/h increase in delta-v. This model informs the development of active safety systems in a future fleet where vehicle passive safety performance is higher, quantified by the NCAP MDB test.
本文的目的是建立一个与美国新车评估计划（NCAP）测试性能、碰撞和乘员特性相关的近侧碰撞伤害风险模型，以预测未来所有车辆都具有相当于 5 星级 NCAP 评级水平（最高星级和最低伤害风险）的被动安全性能的情况下的伤害结果。用于评估伤害风险的数据集中的近侧碰撞数据来自国家汽车抽样系统/耐撞性数据系统（NASS/CDS）。使用了 2010-2015 年的案例年。受伤乘员被定义为经历过最大损伤严重度评分（AIS）为 2 或更高的车辆乘员，或遭受致命伤害的车辆乘员。使用 AIS-2005（2008 年更新）对伤害严重度进行评分。选择了前排座位的后排乘客暴露在近侧碰撞中的案例。使用逻辑回归方法，将 delta-v、安全带状态、年龄和性别作为预测变量，建立了伤害模型。通过将每个案例与 NCAP 移动变形壁障侧面碰撞测试的相关性能进行匹配，确定了每辆车的侧面碰撞性能，并将其添加到模型中。NCAP MDB 测试性能、delta-v 以及乘员年龄、性别和 BMI 被发现是伤害风险的显著预测因素。在 MDB 测试中增加 5%的风险（大约一个星级的降低）的效果与 delta-v 增加 2.84km/h 的效果相当。这个模型为未来车辆的主动安全系统的发展提供了信息，这些车辆的被动安全性能更高，由 NCAP MDB 测试量化。
