Ndambi Oghaiki Asaah, Hemme Torsten
IFCN Dairy Research Center at the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Schauenburger Str. 116, 24118 Kiel, Germany.
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2009 Aug;41(6):979-94. doi: 10.1007/s11250-008-9288-1. Epub 2008 Dec 11.
Population growth, urbanisation and increased per capita milk consumption are main reasons for recent increasing milk demand in Africa. Due to globalisation, it is important to know how competitive various production systems are, especially as most governments promote local production and disfavour dairy imports. The TIPI-CAL (Technology Impact, Policy Impact Calculations model) was used to analyse and compare costs and returns of predominant dairy farming systems in South Africa, Morocco, Uganda and Cameroon. Results show that, as farms grew larger in size, family resources (especially land and labour) became insufficient and there was need for their acquisition from external sources. Though extensive dairy farming systems had the lowest cost of milk production (<20 US-$ per 100 kg milk), their input productivities and milk yields were lower, leading to very low net cash returns from dairying. Large intensive farms in South Africa had relatively low costs (<30 US-$ per 100 kg milk) and a high Return on Investment (ROI) due to a higher efficiency of input utilisation. It was concluded that, intensification of dairy farming and simultaneously increasing the scale of production will greatly increase productivity of farm inputs, thus recommended for development of the dairy sector in African countries.
人口增长、城市化以及人均牛奶消费量的增加是近期非洲牛奶需求不断增长的主要原因。由于全球化,了解各种生产系统的竞争力有多强很重要,特别是因为大多数政府都在促进本地生产并抵制乳制品进口。TIPI-CAL(技术影响、政策影响计算模型)被用于分析和比较南非、摩洛哥、乌干达和喀麦隆主要奶牛养殖系统的成本和收益。结果表明,随着农场规模的扩大,家庭资源(特别是土地和劳动力)变得不足,需要从外部获取。尽管粗放型奶牛养殖系统的牛奶生产成本最低(每100公斤牛奶不到20美元),但其投入生产率和牛奶产量较低,导致奶牛养殖的净现金回报非常低。南非的大型集约化农场成本相对较低(每100公斤牛奶不到30美元),由于投入利用效率较高,投资回报率也很高。得出的结论是,奶牛养殖的集约化以及同时扩大生产规模将大大提高农场投入的生产率,因此建议在非洲国家发展乳制品行业。