Putt Debbie, Haines Keith, Gurney Robert, Liu Chunlei
Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, 3 Earley Gate, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AL, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2009 Mar 13;367(1890):917-23. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0182.
The ability of climate models to reproduce and predict land surface anomalies is an important but little-studied topic. In this study, an atmosphere and ocean assimilation scheme is used to determine whether HadCM3 can reproduce and predict snow water equivalent and soil moisture during the 1997-1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Soil moisture is reproduced more successfully, though both snow and soil moisture show some predictability at 1- and 4-month lead times. This result suggests that land surface anomalies may be reasonably well initialized for climate model predictions and hydrological applications using atmospheric assimilation methods over a period of time.
气候模型再现和预测陆地表面异常的能力是一个重要但研究较少的课题。在本研究中，采用了一种大气和海洋同化方案来确定HadCM3能否在1997 - 1998年厄尔尼诺南方涛动事件期间再现和预测雪水当量及土壤湿度。土壤湿度的再现更为成功，尽管雪和土壤湿度在提前1个月和4个月时都表现出一定的可预测性。这一结果表明，在一段时间内，利用大气同化方法，陆地表面异常对于气候模型预测和水文应用而言，可能能够得到较为合理的初始化。
