Potbelly--the most powerful predictor of metabolic syndrome and premature morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the hospital population for the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome with the help of clinical variables, such as abdominal waist circumference, biochemical variables and ultrasonic variables. The aim was to define the most sensitive and powerful predictor of the syndrome, as also of premature morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

We used clinical and biochemical data from our prospective study: "To Evaluate the Scenario of Metabolic Syndrome in the Hospital-Based Community". The criteria used for the definition of the syndrome were those laid down by the National Cholesterol Eradication Program Adult Treatment Panel III. The modified criteria for Asian Indians, that is, an abdominal waist circumference of greater than 90 cm in men, and above 80 cm in women, were also included. A total of 200 patients (100 males and 100 females) between the ages of 20 and 85 years were clinically and biochemically evaluated for the study.

RESULTS

The results using the National Cholesterol Eradication Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria as well as the modified criteria showed that abdominal waist circumference is the single most accurate (79% and 86.5%, respectively) predictor for determining the metabolic status of an individual (p-value <0.001). The waist circumference cut-off of the modified criteria proved to be a more accurate predictor for males as well as females (69% vs. 84%, and 89% vs. 85%, respectively for the two definitions; p-value <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

An abdominal girth of above 90 cm in males and above 80 cm in females is a far more powerful clinical predictor of the metabolic syndrome than other clinical, biochemical and ultrasonic variables (p-value <0.001). This may be considered in the context of premature morbidity and mortality.