西班牙马德里利用艾滋病监测数据进行艾滋病病例的短期预测。
The use of AIDS surveillance data for short-term prediction of AIDS cases in Madrid, Spain.
作者信息
Medley G F, Zunzunegui V, Bueno R, Lopez Gai D
机构信息
Department of Biology Imperial, College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK.
出版信息
Eur J Epidemiol. 1991 Jul;7(4):349-57. doi: 10.1007/BF00144999.
The paper presents a preliminary attempt to predict the numbers of AIDS cases in the Community of Madrid (CAM) up to 1992. Using AIDS case surveillance data gathered by CAM, and a statistical procedure that includes a distribution for reporting delays, the numbers of new diagnoses, reports, AIDS deaths and numbers of patients alive is predicted. Approximate confidence limits for the numbers of new diagnoses are given. We emphasise that these predictions are tentative given the nature of the reporting delays, and discuss the use of such predictions and the requirements for their improvement.
本文展示了对截至1992年马德里自治区（CAM）艾滋病病例数进行预测的初步尝试。利用CAM收集的艾滋病病例监测数据以及一种包含报告延迟分布的统计程序，对新诊断病例数、报告数、艾滋病死亡数以及存活患者数进行了预测。给出了新诊断病例数的近似置信区间。鉴于报告延迟的性质，我们强调这些预测是初步的，并讨论了此类预测的用途及其改进要求。
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