Scotto J, Pitcher H, Lee J A
Int J Cancer. 1991 Oct 21;49(4):490-7. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910490403.
Trends in skin melanoma death rates during a 35-year period, 1950-84, were analyzed according to age, sex, and birth cohort for whites in the United States. In contrast to upward trends observed for older men and women (i.e., over 40), downward trends were noted for younger age groups. The risk of dying from skin melanoma appears to have peaked for male cohorts born during the 1950s and for female cohorts born during the 1930s. Assuming no future environmental or lifestyle changes, the upward trend in age-adjusted mortality rates, which averaged 2 to 3% per annum since 1950, is projected to discontinue and bend downward by the second decade of the 21st century. Skin melanoma incidence data, which was limited to a series of 12 years (1973-84) and inadequate for cohort analyses, were included to demonstrate that trends in age-specific rates were comparable with those observed for mortality during the overlapping time period. Incidence trends according to anatomical site are also described. These results indicate that baseline data necessary for assessing the potential effects on this disease from future depletions of the ozone layer, and predicted increases of solar ultra-violet radiation exposure, would be improved with the inclusion of cohort data and age-specific trend analyses.
根据年龄、性别和出生队列，分析了1950年至1984年这35年间美国白人皮肤黑素瘤死亡率的趋势。与老年男性和女性（即40岁以上）的上升趋势相反，年轻年龄组呈现下降趋势。死于皮肤黑素瘤的风险似乎在20世纪50年代出生的男性队列和20世纪30年代出生的女性队列中达到峰值。假设未来环境或生活方式没有变化，自1950年以来平均每年上升2%至3%的年龄调整死亡率的上升趋势预计将在21世纪第二个十年停止并向下弯曲。皮肤黑素瘤发病率数据仅限于12年（1973年至1984年），不足以进行队列分析，纳入这些数据是为了表明特定年龄发病率的趋势与重叠时间段内观察到的死亡率趋势相当。还描述了按解剖部位划分的发病率趋势。这些结果表明，通过纳入队列数据和特定年龄趋势分析，将改善评估未来臭氧层损耗和预计太阳紫外线辐射暴露增加对该疾病潜在影响所需的基线数据。
