Giles G G, Armstrong B K, Burton R C, Staples M P, Thursfield V J
Cancer Epidemiology Centre, Anti-Cancer Council of Victoria, Carlton South, Victoria, Australia.
BMJ. 1996 May 4;312(7039):1121-5. doi: 10.1136/bmj.312.7039.1121.
To describe recent trends in mortality from melanoma in Australia.
An analysis of trends in age standardised and age and sex specific mortalities by year of death and median year of birth (cohort).
Australia.
All deaths from melanoma registered in Australia between 1931 and 1994.
Melanoma mortality rose steadily from 1931 to 1985. From 1959 the annual rate of increase was 6.3% in men and 2.9% in women, resulting in mortalities of 4.82 and 2.51 per 100,000 person years in 1985 and 1989, respectively. Mortalities for both sexes seem to have plateaued from June 1985 onwards. In 1990-4 the rate rose by 3.7% in men to 5.00 per 100,000 and in women it fell by 5.2% to 2.38 per 100,000. The non-significant increase after 1985 in mortality in men was restricted to those aged over 70 years of age, whereas the fall in rates in women was mostly in those aged under 55 years. This pattern was generally reflected in the state trends, though with some variation: rates for women in Queensland had peaked in the late 1970s; while rates for men in New South Wales continued to rise in 1990-4, placing them above those for Queensland. Examination of mortalities specific for age, period, and cohort for Australia as a whole showed several salient features. Rates in men rose steeply in cohorts born before about 1930; were stable in cohorts born between 1930 and 1950; and fell in more recent cohorts. Rates in women showed similar changes but about five years earlier.
Melanoma mortality in Australia peaked in about 1985 and has now plateaued. On the basis of trends in cohorts it can be expected to fall in coming years.
描述澳大利亚黑色素瘤死亡率的近期趋势。
按死亡年份和出生中位数年份（队列）分析年龄标准化死亡率以及年龄和性别特异性死亡率的趋势。
澳大利亚。
1931年至1994年间在澳大利亚登记的所有黑色素瘤死亡病例。
1931年至1985年期间，黑色素瘤死亡率稳步上升。从1959年起，男性的年增长率为6.3%，女性为2.9%，导致1985年和1989年每10万人年的死亡率分别为4.82和2.51。自1985年6月起，两性的死亡率似乎都趋于平稳。1990 - 1994年期间，男性死亡率上升了3.7%，达到每10万人5.00，而女性死亡率下降了5.2%，降至每10万人2.38。1985年后男性死亡率的非显著上升仅限于70岁以上人群，而女性死亡率的下降主要发生在55岁以下人群。这种模式在各州趋势中普遍有所体现，不过存在一些差异：昆士兰州女性的死亡率在20世纪70年代末达到峰值；而新南威尔士州男性的死亡率在1990 - 1994年期间持续上升，超过了昆士兰州。对澳大利亚整体按年龄、时期和队列划分的死亡率进行考察显示出几个显著特征。出生于1930年左右之前的男性队列中死亡率急剧上升；出生于1930年至1950年之间的队列中死亡率稳定；而在最近的队列中死亡率下降。女性的死亡率呈现类似变化，但大约早五年。
澳大利亚黑色素瘤死亡率在1985年左右达到峰值，现已趋于平稳。根据队列趋势，预计未来几年死亡率将会下降。
