Center for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany.
Center for Dermatooncology, Department of Dermatology, Eberhard Karls University, Tuebingen, Germany.
Eur J Cancer. 2021 Jul;152:18-25. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2021.04.029. Epub 2021 May 29.
Cutaneous melanoma (CM) and keratinocyte cancer (KC) cause considerable morbidity and mortality. We analysed long-term trends of CM and KC in different white populations.
Age-standardised (European Standard Population 2013) incidence and mortality rates (ASIR, ASMR) of CM were extracted from cancer registries in Denmark, New Zealand and the US SEER-Database. ASIRs of KC were sourced from registries of the German federal states Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein, and from Scotland. Age-period-cohort models were used to project melanoma incidence trends.
In Denmark between 1943 and 2016, melanoma ASIR increased from 1.1 to 46.5 in males, and from 1.0 to 48.5 in females, estimated to reach 60.0 and 73.1 in males and females by 2036. Melanoma mortality in Denmark (1951-2016) increased from 1.4 to 6.7 (males) and 1.2 to 3.7 (females). In New Zealand between 1948 and 2016, ASIR increased from 2.7 to 81.0 (males) and from 3.8 to 54.7 (females), slight declines are estimated by 2036 for both genders. Melanoma mortality increased six-fold in New Zealand males between 1950 and 2016; smaller increases were observed in females. We observed three- to four-fold increases in melanoma incidence in US whites, predicted to rise to 56.1 and 36.2 in males and females until 2036. Melanoma mortality also increased among US whites between 1970 and 2017, female melanoma mortality remained stable. Similar trends are shown for KC.
In white populations, incidence of CM and KC significantly increased. CM incidence continues to rise in the short term but is predicted to decline in future.
皮肤黑色素瘤（CM）和角质形成细胞癌（KC）导致相当大的发病率和死亡率。我们分析了不同白人人群中 CM 和 KC 的长期趋势。
从丹麦、新西兰和美国 SEER 数据库的癌症登记处提取了年龄标准化（2013 年欧洲标准人口）CM 的发病率和死亡率（ASIR、ASMR）。KC 的 ASIR 来自德国萨尔州和石勒苏益格-荷尔斯泰因州以及苏格兰的登记处。使用年龄-时期-队列模型预测黑色素瘤发病率趋势。
在丹麦，1943 年至 2016 年间，男性黑色素瘤的 ASIR 从 1.1 增加到 46.5，女性从 1.0 增加到 48.5，预计到 2036 年男性和女性将分别达到 60.0 和 73.1。丹麦（1951-2016 年）黑色素瘤死亡率从 1.4 增加到 6.7（男性）和 1.2 增加到 3.7（女性）。在新西兰，1948 年至 2016 年间，ASIR 从 2.7 增加到 81.0（男性）和从 3.8 增加到 54.7（女性），预计到 2036 年男女两性都会略有下降。1950 年至 2016 年间，新西兰男性黑色素瘤死亡率增加了六倍；女性的增幅较小。我们观察到美国白人黑色素瘤发病率增加了三到四倍，预计到 2036 年男性和女性的发病率将分别上升至 56.1 和 36.2。1970 年至 2017 年间，美国白人的黑色素瘤死亡率也有所上升，而女性黑色素瘤死亡率保持稳定。KC 也显示出类似的趋势。
在白人人群中，CM 和 KC 的发病率显著增加。CM 的发病率在短期内仍在上升，但预计未来会下降。
