Bi P, Hiller J E, Cameron A S, Zhang Y, Givney R
Discipline of Public Health, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2009 Oct;137(10):1486-93. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809002441. Epub 2009 Mar 19.
Ross River virus (RRV) infection is the most common notifiable vector-borne disease in Australia, with around 6000 cases annually. This study aimed to examine the relationship between climate variability and notified RRV infections in the Riverland region of South Australia in order to set up an early warning system for the disease in temperate-climate regions. Notified data of RRV infections were collected by the South Australian Department of Health. Climatic variables and monthly river flow were provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and South Australian Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation over the period 1992-2004. Spearman correlation and time-series-adjusted Poisson regression analysis were performed. The results indicate that increases in monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures, monthly total rainfall, monthly mean Southern Oscillation Index and monthly flow in the Murray River increase the likelihood, but an increase in monthly mean relative humidity decreases the likelihood, of disease transmission in the region, with different time-lag effects. This study demonstrates that a useful early warning system can be developed for local regions based on the statistical analysis of readily available climate data. These early warning systems can be utilized by local public health authorities to develop disease prevention and control activities.
罗斯河病毒（RRV）感染是澳大利亚最常见的须通报虫媒疾病，每年约有6000例病例。本研究旨在调查南澳大利亚州里弗兰地区气候变异性与通报的RRV感染之间的关系，以便为温带气候地区建立该疾病的早期预警系统。RRV感染的通报数据由南澳大利亚州卫生部收集。1992年至2004年期间，气候变量和月河流量由澳大利亚气象局以及南澳大利亚州水、土地和生物多样性保护部提供。进行了斯皮尔曼相关性分析和时间序列调整泊松回归分析。结果表明，月平均最低和最高气温升高、月总降雨量增加、月平均南方涛动指数升高以及墨累河月流量增加，会增加该地区疾病传播的可能性，但月平均相对湿度增加则会降低疾病传播的可能性，且存在不同的时间滞后效应。本研究表明，基于对现成气候数据的统计分析，可以为当地建立有用的早期预警系统。当地公共卫生当局可利用这些早期预警系统开展疾病预防和控制活动。
