Roche Benjamin, Lebarbenchon Camille, Gauthier-Clerc Michel, Chang Chung-Ming, Thomas Frédéric, Renaud François, van der Werf Sylvie, Guégan Jean-François
Génétique et Evolution des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR CNRS/IRD 2724, 911, avenue Agropolis, BP 64504, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France.
Infect Genet Evol. 2009 Sep;9(5):800-5. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2009.04.009. Epub 2009 Apr 18.
Transmission and persistence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) among wildlife remains an unresolved issue because it depends both on the ecology of the host (e.g. population density, migration) and on the environment (e.g. AIV persistence in water). We have developed a mathematical model that accounts for both AIV epidemics and bird community dynamics. The model is parameterized using bird counts and AIV prevalence data. Results suggest that the transmission patterns driving the dynamics of infection at our study site (Camargue, South of France) involved both a density-dependent and a water-borne transmission processes. Water-borne transmission is, however, the main determinant of the disease dynamics and observed prevalence level. This pattern of transmission highlights the importance of the persistence of viral particles in water in AIV dynamics in wild birds.
禽流感病毒（AIV）在野生动物中的传播和持续存在仍是一个未解决的问题，因为这既取决于宿主的生态（如种群密度、迁徙），也取决于环境（如AIV在水中的持续存在）。我们开发了一个数学模型，该模型兼顾了AIV流行和鸟类群落动态。该模型使用鸟类数量和AIV流行数据进行参数化。结果表明，在我们的研究地点（法国南部的卡马尔格），驱动感染动态的传播模式涉及密度依赖性和水传播过程。然而，水传播是疾病动态和观察到的流行水平的主要决定因素。这种传播模式凸显了病毒颗粒在水中的持续存在在野生鸟类AIV动态中的重要性。
