Burks Stephen V, Carpenter Jeffrey P, Goette Lorenz, Rustichini Aldo
Division of Social Sciences, University of Minnesota, 600 East 4th Street, Morris, MN 56267-2134, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 12;106(19):7745-50. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0812360106. Epub 2009 Apr 24.
Economic analysis has so far said little about how an individual's cognitive skills (CS) are related to the individual's economic preferences in different choice domains, such as risk taking or saving, and how preferences in different domains are related to each other. Using a sample of 1,000 trainee truckers we report three findings. First, there is a strong and significant relationship between an individual's CS and preferences. Individuals with better CS are more patient, in both short- and long-run. Better CS are also associated with a greater willingness to take calculated risks. Second, CS predict social awareness and choices in a sequential Prisoner's Dilemma game. Subjects with better CS more accurately forecast others' behavior and differentiate their behavior as a second mover more strongly depending on the first-mover's choice. Third, CS, and in particular, the ability to plan, strongly predict perseverance on the job in a setting with a substantial financial penalty for early exit. Consistent with CS being a common factor in all of these preferences and behaviors, we find a strong pattern of correlation among them. These results, taken together with the theoretical explanation we offer for the relationships we find, suggest that higher CS systematically affect preferences and choices in ways that favor economic success.
到目前为止,经济分析很少涉及个人的认知技能(CS)如何与个人在不同选择领域(如冒险或储蓄)的经济偏好相关,以及不同领域的偏好如何相互关联。我们以1000名实习卡车司机为样本,报告了三项发现。第一,个人的CS与偏好之间存在强烈且显著的关系。CS较好的个体在短期和长期内都更有耐心。较好的CS也与更大的承担可计算风险的意愿相关。第二,CS能预测在序贯囚徒困境博弈中的社会意识和选择。CS较好的受试者能更准确地预测他人的行为,并根据先行者的选择更强烈地将自己作为后行者的行为区分开来。第三,CS,尤其是计划能力,在一个因提前退出会受到重大经济处罚的环境中,能有力地预测工作中的毅力。与CS是所有这些偏好和行为的共同因素一致,我们发现它们之间存在很强的关联模式。这些结果,连同我们对所发现关系提供的理论解释,表明较高的CS以有利于经济成功的方式系统地影响偏好和选择。