Bailey Shara E, Weaver Timothy D, Hublin Jean-Jacques
Department of Anthropology, New York University, 25 Waverly Place, New York, NY 10003, USA.
J Hum Evol. 2009 Jul;57(1):11-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jhevol.2009.02.003. Epub 2009 May 23.
The Aurignacian is typically taken as a marker of the spread of anatomically modern humans into Europe. However, human remains associated with this industry are frustratingly sparse and often limited to teeth. Some have suggested that Neandertals may, in fact, be responsible for the Aurignacian and the earliest Upper Paleolithic industries. Although dental remains are frequently considered to be taxonomically undiagnostic in this context, recent research shows that Neandertals possess a distinct dental pattern relative to anatomically modern humans. Even so, it is rare to find mandibles or maxillae that preserve all or most of their teeth; and, the probability of correctly identifying individuals represented by only a few teeth or a single tooth is unknown. We present a Bayesian statistical approach to classifying individuals represented exclusively by teeth into two possible groups. The classification is based on dental trait frequencies and sample sizes for 'known' samples of 95 Neandertals and 63 Upper Paleolithic modern humans. In a cross validation test of the known samples, 89% of the Neandertals and 89% of the Upper Paleolithic modern humans were classified correctly. We then classified an 'unknown' sample of 52 individuals: 34 associated with Aurignacian or other (non-Châtelperronian) early Upper Paleolithic industries, 15 associated with the Châtelperronian, and three unassociated. Of the 34 early Upper Paleolithic-associated individuals, 29 were assigned to modern humans, which is well within the range expected (95% of the time 26-33) with an 11% misclassification rate for an entirely modern human sample. These results provide some of the strongest evidence that anatomically modern humans made the Aurignacian and other (non-Châtelperronian) early Upper Paleolithic industries.
奥瑞纳文化通常被视为解剖学意义上的现代人类向欧洲扩散的标志。然而，与该文化相关的人类遗骸极为稀少，且往往仅限于牙齿。有人认为，实际上尼安德特人可能是奥瑞纳文化及最早的旧石器时代晚期文化的创造者。尽管在此背景下牙齿遗骸通常被认为在分类学上无法明确诊断，但最近的研究表明，相对于解剖学意义上的现代人类，尼安德特人拥有独特的牙齿形态。即便如此，保存了全部或大部分牙齿的下颌骨或上颌骨依然罕见；而且，仅根据几颗牙齿或一颗牙齿正确识别个体的概率尚不清楚。我们提出了一种贝叶斯统计方法，将仅由牙齿代表的个体分为两个可能的群体。该分类基于95名尼安德特人和63名旧石器时代晚期现代人类“已知”样本的牙齿特征频率和样本量。在对已知样本的交叉验证测试中，89%的尼安德特人和89%的旧石器时代晚期现代人类被正确分类。然后我们对一个由52个个体组成的“未知”样本进行了分类：34个与奥瑞纳文化或其他（非夏特尔佩罗文化）旧石器时代早期文化相关，15个与夏特尔佩罗文化相关，还有3个无关联。在34个与旧石器时代早期相关的个体中，29个被归为现代人类，这完全在预期范围内（95%的情况下为26 - 33个），对于完全由现代人类组成的样本，错误分类率为11%。这些结果提供了一些最有力的证据，表明解剖学意义上的现代人类创造了奥瑞纳文化及其他（非夏特尔佩罗文化）旧石器时代早期文化。
