Nickerson Raymond S, Butler Susan F
Tufts University, USA.
Am J Psychol. 2009 Summer;122(2):141-51.
This experiment addressed the opinion prevailing among researchers that people are poor at producing random binary sequences. Participants tried to produce sets of sequences of outcomes of imaginary coin tosses that could not be distinguished statistically from sets expected from actual coin tossing. The results generally support the conclusion that people are not very good at this task, although the distributional properties of the sets of sequences produced are qualitatively similar to those expected of sets produced by a random process. The results do not support the common finding that people consistently produce substantially more alternations and fewer repetitions than would be produced by chance, nor do they provide evidence of the pervasive operation of a gambler's fallacy manifesting itself in a tendency for an alternation to increase with the length of a preceding run.
本实验探讨了研究人员中普遍存在的一种观点,即人们不擅长生成随机二元序列。参与者试图生成一系列想象中抛硬币的结果序列,这些序列在统计学上无法与实际抛硬币所预期的序列区分开来。结果总体上支持了这样的结论:人们在这项任务上表现不佳,尽管所生成的序列集的分布特性在质量上与随机过程所产生的序列集预期的特性相似。结果并不支持常见的发现,即人们持续产生的交替次数显著多于偶然情况下产生的次数,重复次数则显著少于偶然情况,也没有提供证据表明存在普遍存在的赌徒谬误,即交替次数会随着前续连续次数的长度增加而增加的趋势。