Ash Ivan K
Psychology Department, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529-0267, USA.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2009 Jul;35(4):916-33. doi: 10.1037/a0015504.
Hindsight bias has been shown to be a pervasive and potentially harmful decision-making bias. A review of 4 competing cognitive reconstruction theories of hindsight bias revealed conflicting predictions about the role and effect of expectation or surprise in retrospective judgment formation. Two experiments tested these predictions examining the effects of manipulating the information presented in a text-based scenario and its congruency with the given outcome on surprise, hindsight bias, and recall. The results of Experiment 1 revealed evidence of hindsight bias after exposure to incongruent and ambivalent outcomes but not after exposure to congruent outcomes. Experiment 2 replicated the hindsight bias results and found that the ratio of outcome consistent information recalled was higher than expected in the incongruent and ambivalent conditions but equaled the ratio presented to participants in the congruent condition. The results were interpreted as supporting the general predictions of sense-making models of the hindsight bias. A refined version of this model is discussed.
后见之明偏差已被证明是一种普遍存在且可能有害的决策偏差。对关于后见之明偏差的4种相互竞争的认知重构理论的综述揭示，对于预期或意外在回顾性判断形成中的作用和影响，存在相互矛盾的预测。两项实验对这些预测进行了测试，研究了操纵基于文本的情景中呈现的信息及其与给定结果的一致性对意外感、后见之明偏差和回忆的影响。实验1的结果显示，在接触不一致和矛盾的结果后出现了后见之明偏差的证据，但在接触一致的结果后则没有。实验2重复了后见之明偏差的结果，并发现，在不一致和矛盾的情况下，回忆起的与结果一致的信息比例高于预期，但在一致的情况下，该比例与呈现给参与者的比例相等。这些结果被解释为支持后见之明偏差的意义建构模型的一般预测。本文还讨论了该模型的一个改进版本。
