Department of Psychology, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, D-55099 Mainz, Germany.
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2010 Nov;36(6):1399-413. doi: 10.1037/a0020449.
Hindsight bias has recently been conceived of not as a unitary phenomenon but as a conglomerate of 3 separate phenomenological manifestations ("hindsight components"; Blank, Nestler, von Collani, & Fischer, 2008): memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability, and impressions of inevitability. These components are thought to be fundamentally different in nature, to be influenced by different processes, and to serve different functions. This article provides strong evidence for the separate components view and its underlying assumptions by demonstrating theoretically predicted dissociations between the components. In Experiment 1, for example, we used a memory encoding manipulation to specifically influence the amount of hindsight memory distortion but not participants' inevitability impressions. Conversely, varying the number of provided reasons for an event outcome affected inevitability impressions but left memory distortion untouched. Similar results-using different theoretically derived manipulations-were obtained between foreseeability impressions and memory distortions (Experiment 2) and between inevitability and foreseeability impressions (Experiment 3). Theoretical and practical consequences of these results and of the separate components view are discussed.
后视偏差最近被认为不是一个单一的现象，而是由 3 种不同的现象表现（“后视成分”；Blank、Nestler、von Collani 和 Fischer，2008）组合而成：记忆扭曲、可预见性印象和必然性印象。这些成分在本质上被认为是不同的，受到不同过程的影响，并具有不同的功能。本文通过证明成分之间的理论预测分离，为单独成分观点及其假设提供了强有力的证据。例如，在实验 1 中，我们使用了记忆编码操作来专门影响后见记忆扭曲的程度，而不会影响参与者的必然性印象。相反，改变事件结果的提供原因的数量会影响必然性印象，但不会影响记忆扭曲。在预见印象和记忆扭曲（实验 2）以及必然性和预见印象（实验 3）之间，也得到了类似的结果——使用不同的理论衍生操作。这些结果和单独成分观点的理论和实际意义进行了讨论。
