Department of Psychiatry, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA.
Biol Psychiatry. 2009 Oct 15;66(8):750-7. doi: 10.1016/j.biopsych.2009.05.030. Epub 2009 Jul 29.
Age of onset to begin drinking is a known risk factor for alcohol dependence. Factors have been identified that contribute to age of onset to begin regular drinking. These include reduced P300, increased postural sway, and personality variation. A longitudinal study spanning childhood to young adulthood provided the opportunity to determine if these same factors would predict the presence and onset of substance use disorders (SUD).
Multiplex families were identified through two or more alcohol-dependent brothers. Offspring from these multiplex or control families (n = 133) were followed annually during childhood. Using childhood predictors previously identified as risk factors for age of onset to begin drinking, SUD outcome by young adulthood was modeled.
Familial risk status was a significant predictor of young adult SUD outcome as a main effect and as an interaction with P300 amplitude recorded before the age of 13. In adolescence (age 15), increased postural sway and familial risk predicted the SUD outcome by age 22. Analysis comparing the presence of one or both risk factors showed that those above the median for sway and below the median for P300 amplitude had substantially increased odds of developing SUD (odds ratio = 8.08 [confidence interval = 1.52-42.83]).
Our findings indicate that among the factors predicting age of onset to begin regular drinking, P300 predicts SUD outcome across an 11-year span. The present findings provide the longest follow-up to date demonstrating that neurobiological factors in childhood are among the most salient predictors of young adult SUD outcome.
开始饮酒的年龄是酒精依赖的已知风险因素。已经确定了一些导致开始定期饮酒的年龄的因素。这些因素包括 P300 减少、姿势摆动增加和个性变化。一项从儿童期到青年期的纵向研究提供了机会，以确定这些相同的因素是否会预测物质使用障碍（SUD）的存在和发病。
通过两个或更多酒精依赖的兄弟确定多聚家庭。来自这些多聚或对照家庭的后代（n=133）在儿童期每年接受随访。使用先前确定为开始饮酒年龄的风险因素的儿童期预测因子，对青年期 SUD 结局进行建模。
家族风险状况是青年期 SUD 结局的一个显著预测因子，作为主要效应和与 13 岁前记录的 P300 幅度的交互作用。在青春期（15 岁），姿势摆动增加和家族风险预测了 22 岁时的 SUD 结局。分析比较了一个或两个风险因素的存在情况，结果表明，那些在摆动中位数以上且 P300 幅度中位数以下的人，发展 SUD 的可能性大大增加（优势比=8.08[置信区间=1.52-42.83]）。
我们的发现表明，在预测开始定期饮酒年龄的因素中，P300 在 11 年的时间跨度内预测 SUD 结局。目前的发现提供了迄今为止最长的随访时间，表明儿童期的神经生物学因素是青年期 SUD 结局的最显著预测因子之一。
