School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2009 Sep-Oct;28(5):w849-62. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w849. Epub 2009 Aug 6.
This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)-more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.
本文使用预测模型估算了 2015 年（联合国千年发展目标的目标日期） 39 个非洲国家对医生、护士和助产士的需求、供应和短缺情况。我们预测，31 个国家将出现医生、护士和助产士的需求性短缺，总计约 80 万名卫生专业人员。我们估计消除短缺所需的额外年度工资支出约为 26 亿美元（2007 年美元），是 2015 年目前工资支出预测的两倍多。我们说明了劳动力组合的变化如何降低这一成本，并讨论了我们研究结果的政策含义。
