Predictive ability of childhood metabolic components for adult metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of components of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) during childhood for MetS and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adulthood.

STUDY DESIGN

Data from 3 major studies-the Fels Longitudinal Study, the Muscatine Study, and the Princeton Follow-up Study-were combined to examine how thresholds of metabolic components during childhood determine adult MetS and T2D. Available metabolic components examined in the 1789 subjects included high-density lipoprotein, triglyceride levels, glucose, and percentiles for body mass index, waist circumference, triglycerides, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for a refined set of component threshold values were examined individually and in combination.

RESULTS

Sensitivity and positive predictive values remained low for adult MetS and T2D for individual components. However, specificity and negative predictive values were fairly high for MetS and exceptionally so for T2D. In combination, having 1 or more of the components showed the highest sensitivity over any individual component and high negative predictive value. Overall, specificity and negative predictive values remained high whether considering individual or combined components for T2D.

CONCLUSIONS

Sensitivity and positive predictive values on the basis of childhood measures remained relatively low, but specificity and negative predictive values were consistently higher, especially for T2D. This indicates that these components, when examined during childhood, may provide a useful screening approach to identifying children not at risk so that further attention can be focused on those who may be in need of future intervention.