Abt Associates in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2009 Nov-Dec;28(6):w991-1001. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.6.w991. Epub 2009 Sep 10.
The widely cited Census Bureau estimates of the number of uninsured people, based on the Current Population Survey, probably overstate the number of uninsured people. This is because of a Medicaid "undercount": Fewer people report to survey takers that they're covered by Medicaid than program administrative data show are enrolled. Our study finds that the undercount can be explained by the inability of people to recall their insurance status accurately from the previous year. We suggest that other data sources, such as Census's American Community Survey, should be studied to determine whether they would provide better estimates of the uninsured.
人口普查局基于“当前人口调查”（Current Population Survey）得出的、被广泛引用的未参保人数估计数，可能夸大了未参保人数。这是因为医疗补助（Medicaid）存在“低估”：向调查人员报告自己参加了医疗补助的人数，比项目管理数据显示的参保人数要少。我们的研究发现，这种低估可以用人们无法准确回忆起上一年的保险状况来解释。我们建议研究其他数据源，如人口普查局的“美国社区调查”（American Community Survey），以确定它们是否能更好地估计未参保人数。
