Page Marianne E
Department of Economics, University of California, Davis, NBER and IZA.
J Econ Lit. 2024 Sep;62(3):891-947. doi: 10.1257/jel.20231553.
Family income is a positive predictor of children's health, human capital, and later-life earnings, but determining the extent to which these associations reflect causal effects is challenging. A recent wave of natural and randomized experiments, together with increased accessibility of large-scale administrative data, are allowing us to gain new perspectives about the importance of families' monetary resources in the U.S. and other high-income countries. This review pulls the emerging literature together to provide deeper insights into what we know, and what we don't know, about the extent to which policies that provide more generous income transfers could make a difference to children's life chances. My reading of the evidence suggests that policies providing financial resources to economically vulnerable families have the potential to improve children's outcomes. The magnitude of predicted impacts varies considerably across studies, however, and may be related to specific features of the income-generating event that researchers' leverage.
家庭收入是儿童健康、人力资本及成年后收入的正向预测指标,但要确定这些关联在多大程度上反映因果效应颇具挑战性。最近一系列自然实验和随机实验,以及大规模行政数据获取的便利性提高,使我们能够对美国家庭货币资源的重要性及其他高收入国家有新的认识。这篇综述将新兴文献汇总在一起,以便更深入地了解我们已知和未知的内容,即提供更慷慨收入转移的政策在多大程度上能够改变儿童的人生机遇。我对证据的解读表明,向经济脆弱家庭提供财政资源的政策有改善儿童状况的潜力。然而,不同研究预测影响的程度差异很大,这可能与研究人员所利用的创收事件的具体特征有关。