European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Protection and Security of Citizen, Ispra, VA, Italy.
Prev Vet Med. 2009 Dec 1;92(4):341-50. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.08.026. Epub 2009 Sep 22.
Livestock movement data represent a valuable source of information to understand the pattern of contacts between premises which may determine the spread of diseases. Social network analysis techniques have been used to analyse the movement patterns of cattle in Italy in 2007. A description of the structure of the Italian cattle industry is presented and the main trade flows and the relations between premises in relation to the potential spread of cattle diseases are investigated. Epidemic simulations have been carried out on the network build out of movement data using a network-based meta-population model. The simulations show the influence of the network structure on the dynamics and size of a hypothetic epidemic and give useful indications on the effects of targeted removal of nodes based on the centrality of premises within the network of animal movements.
牲畜流动数据代表了一种有价值的信息来源，可以了解牛场之间接触的模式，而这些接触模式可能决定疾病的传播。社会网络分析技术已被用于分析 2007 年意大利的牛只流动模式。本文描述了意大利牛只产业的结构，并研究了主要的贸易流动和牛场之间的关系，以探讨牛只疾病传播的潜在风险。利用基于网络的元种群模型，对流动数据构建的网络进行了传染病模拟。模拟结果表明了网络结构对假设传染病动态和规模的影响，并提供了有关基于动物流动网络中牛场的中心性有针对性地去除节点的效果的有用指示。
