Marewski Julian N, Gaissmaier Wolfgang, Gigerenzer Gerd
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Lentzeallee 94, 14195, Berlin, Germany.
Cogn Process. 2010 May;11(2):103-21. doi: 10.1007/s10339-009-0337-0. Epub 2009 Sep 27.
What cognitive capabilities allow Homo sapiens to successfully bet on the stock market, to catch balls in baseball games, to accurately predict the outcomes of political elections, or to correctly decide whether a patient needs to be allocated to the coronary care unit? It is a widespread belief in psychology and beyond that complex judgment tasks require complex solutions. Countering this common intuition, in this article, we argue that in an uncertain world actually the opposite is true: Humans do not need complex cognitive strategies to make good inferences, estimations, and other judgments; rather, it is the very simplicity and robustness of our cognitive repertoire that makes Homo sapiens a capable decision maker.
哪些认知能力使智人能够成功地在股票市场上押注、在棒球比赛中接球、准确预测政治选举结果，或者正确决定是否需要将一名患者分配到冠心病监护病房？在心理学及其他领域，人们普遍认为复杂的判断任务需要复杂的解决方案。与这种常见的直觉相反，在本文中，我们认为，在一个不确定的世界里，实际情况恰恰相反：人类不需要复杂的认知策略来做出良好的推理、估计和其他判断；相反，正是我们认知技能库的极度简单性和稳健性使智人成为有能力的决策者。
