Great Western Hospital, Swindon, UK.
Cancer Causes Control. 2010 Jan;21(1):83-90. doi: 10.1007/s10552-009-9437-5. Epub 2009 Oct 1.
This study combines population changes in hormone therapy (HT) use with reported relative risks to estimate directly the impact of reductions in HT use on US breast cancer incidence.
Using breast cancer incidence rates and prevalence estimates of HT use, the breast cancer incidence in HT users and non-users was derived. Attributable fraction calculations used risk data from the Million Women Survey (MWS), Collins' meta-analysis (CMA), and the initial or later data from the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) study.
Between 2000 and 2005, HT use fell from 25.0 to 11.3%. The reported breast cancer incidence (in women aged 40-79) fell 8.8%. Derived incidence rates among non-users of HT remained unchanged (MWS or later WHI data) or slightly lower (initial WHI and CMA data), suggesting reductions in incidence are almost entirely (MWS or later WHI data) or partially (initial WHI or CMA data) due to reduced HT use.
Changes in reported breast cancer incidence may be partially or largely explained by changes in HT use in the US population.
本研究将激素疗法（HT）使用人群变化与报告的相对风险相结合，直接估计 HT 使用减少对美国乳腺癌发病率的影响。
利用乳腺癌发病率和 HT 使用的流行率估计值，得出 HT 使用者和非使用者的乳腺癌发病率。归因分数计算使用了来自百万妇女调查（MWS）、柯林斯荟萃分析（CMA）以及妇女健康倡议（WHI）研究初始或后续数据的风险数据。
2000 年至 2005 年间，HT 使用从 25.0%降至 11.3%。报告的乳腺癌发病率（40-79 岁女性）下降了 8.8%。HT 非使用者的发病率保持不变（MWS 或后续 WHI 数据）或略有下降（初始 WHI 和 CMA 数据），表明发病率的降低几乎完全（MWS 或后续 WHI 数据）或部分（初始 WHI 或 CMA 数据）归因于 HT 使用的减少。
美国人群中 HT 使用的变化可能部分或在很大程度上解释了报告的乳腺癌发病率的变化。
