Ablah Elizabeth, Konda Kurt, Kelley Crystal L
Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Kansas School of Medicine-Wichita, Wichita, KS 67214, USA.
Biosecur Bioterror. 2009 Sep;7(3):317-30. doi: 10.1089/bsp.2009.0022.
Disasters pose a very real threat to every individual in the United States. One way to mitigate the threat of disasters is through personal preparedness, yet numerous studies indicate that individual Americans are not prepared for a disaster. This study attempted to identify the factors most likely to predict individual disaster preparedness. We used 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from the 5 states that included the optional general preparedness module. Respondents were defined as being "prepared" if they were deficient in no more than 1 of the 6 actionable preparedness measures included on the BRFSS. Analyses were conducted comparing preparedness rates based on medical and demographic factors. Using logistic regression, a predictive model was constructed to identify which factors most strongly predicted an individual's likelihood of being prepared. Although 78% of respondents reported feeling prepared for a disaster, just 45% of respondents were actually prepared by objective measures. Factors predicting an increased likelihood of preparedness included feeling "well prepared" (OR 9.417), having a disability or health condition requiring special equipment (OR 1.298), being 55 to 64 years old (OR 1.794), and having an annual income above $50,000 (OR 1.286). Among racial and ethnic minorities, an inability to afford medical care in the previous year (OR .581) was an important factor in predicting a decreased likelihood of being prepared. This study revealed a pervasive lack of disaster preparedness overall and a substantial gap between perceived and objective preparedness. Income and age were important predictors of disaster preparedness.
灾难对美国的每一个人都构成了非常现实的威胁。减轻灾难威胁的一种方法是通过个人准备，但众多研究表明，美国个人并没有为灾难做好准备。本研究试图确定最有可能预测个人灾难准备情况的因素。我们使用了来自5个州的2006年行为风险因素监测系统（BRFSS）数据，这些州包含了可选的一般准备模块。如果受访者在BRFSS所包含的6项可行动的准备措施中不足1项，则被定义为“有准备”。基于医疗和人口因素对准备率进行了分析比较。使用逻辑回归构建了一个预测模型，以确定哪些因素最能有力地预测个人有准备的可能性。尽管78%的受访者表示感觉为灾难做好了准备，但根据客观标准，实际上只有45%的受访者做好了准备。预测准备可能性增加的因素包括感觉“准备充分”（比值比9.417）、有残疾或健康状况需要特殊设备（比值比1.298）、年龄在55至64岁之间（比值比1.794）以及年收入超过5万美元（比值比1.286）。在少数种族和族裔中，前一年无力支付医疗费用（比值比0.581）是预测准备可能性降低的一个重要因素。这项研究揭示了总体上普遍缺乏灾难准备，以及感知准备和客观准备之间存在巨大差距。收入和年龄是灾难准备的重要预测因素。
