Sivak Michael
The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2150, USA.
Traffic Inj Prev. 2009 Dec;10(6):511-2. doi: 10.1080/15389580903277580.
In the United States, traffic fatality rates per distance driven vary greatly from state to state, with the maximum rate being 2.9 times the minimum rate. This study was designed to examine factors associated with this variability.
A multiple regression was performed on the 2006 state data. The dependent variable was the fatality rate per distance driven. There were 10 independent variables.
The analysis identified seven statistically significant factors: homicide rate per capita (used in the analysis as a proxy for aggression), physicians per capita, safety-belt usage rate, proportion of male drivers, proportion of drivers over 64 years of age, income per capita, and deaths caused by alcohol-related liver failures per capita (a proxy for the extent of intoxicated driving). These seven factors accounted for 71 percent of the variance in the traffic fatality rates. The strongest predictor of the traffic fatality rate was the homicide rate.
This finding suggests that social aspects of human interaction may play an important role in traffic safety.
在美国，每行驶一定距离的交通死亡率在各州之间差异很大，最高死亡率是最低死亡率的2.9倍。本研究旨在探讨与这种差异相关的因素。
对2006年的州数据进行多元回归分析。因变量是每行驶一定距离的死亡率。有10个自变量。
分析确定了七个具有统计学意义的因素：人均凶杀率（在分析中用作攻击性的替代指标）、人均医生数量、安全带使用率、男性司机比例、64岁以上司机比例、人均收入以及人均酒精性肝衰竭导致的死亡人数（用作醉酒驾驶程度的替代指标）。这七个因素占交通死亡率差异的71%。交通死亡率的最强预测因素是凶杀率。
这一发现表明，人际互动的社会层面可能在交通安全中发挥重要作用。
