A novel method of analyzing daily milk production and electrical conductivity to predict disease onset.

This study evaluates the changes in milk production (yield; MY) and milk electrical conductivity (MEC) before and after disease diagnosis and proposes a cow health monitoring scheme based on observing individual daily MY and MEC. All reproductive and health events were recorded on occurrence, and MY and MEC were collected at each milking from January 2004 through November 2006 for 587 cows. The first 24 mo (January 2004 until December 2005) were used to investigate the effects of disease on MY and MEC, model MY and MEC of healthy animals, and develop a health monitoring scheme to detect disease based on changes in a cow's MY or MEC. The remaining 11 mo of data (January to November 2006) were used to compare the performance of the health monitoring schemes developed in this study to the disease detection system currently used on the farm. Mixed model was used to examine the effect of diseases on MY and MEC. Days in milk (DIM), DIM x DIM, and ambient temperature were entered as quantitative variables and number of calves, parity, calving difficulty, day relative to breeding, day of somatotropin treatment, and 25 health event categories were entered as categorical variables. Significant changes in MY and MEC were observed as early as 10 and 9 d before diagnosis. Greatest cumulative effect on MY over the 59-d evaluation period was estimated for miscellaneous digestive disorders (mainly diarrhea) and udder scald, at -304.42 and -304.17 kg, respectively. The greatest average daily effect was estimated for milk fever with a 10.36-kg decrease in MY and 8.3% increase in MEC. Milk yield and MEC was modeled by an autoregressive model using a subset of healthy cow records. Six different self-starting cumulative sum and Shewhart charting schemes were designed using 3 different specificities (98, 99, and 99.5%) and based on MY alone or MY and MEC. Monitoring schemes developed in this study issue alerts earlier relative to the day of diagnosis of udder, reproductive, or metabolic problems, are more sensitive, and give fewer false-positive alerts than the disease detection system currently used on the farm.