The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL), 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
Science. 2009 Dec 4;326(5958):1397-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1180251. Epub 2009 Oct 22.
A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.
一个全球性的生物燃料计划将导致对土地供应的巨大压力，并可能增加土地利用变化产生的温室气体排放。我们使用关联的经济和陆地生物地球化学模型，研究了扩大全球纤维素生物能源计划可能导致的土地利用变化的直接和间接影响，以及这些变化对 21 世纪温室气体排放的影响。我们的模型预测，间接土地利用将导致比直接土地利用更多的碳损失（高达两倍）；然而，由于预计化肥使用量增加，一氧化二氮排放将比碳损失本身对变暖潜力更为重要。一个保护森林和鼓励最佳氮肥使用实践的全球温室气体排放政策，可以显著减少与生物燃料生产相关的排放。
