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气候变化的长远影响:社会遥相关与气候变化影响研究的未来

The long arm of climate change: societal teleconnections and the future of climate change impacts studies.

作者信息

Moser Susanne C, Hart Juliette A Finzi

机构信息

Susanne Moser Research and Consulting, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA.

2Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA USA.

出版信息

Clim Change. 2015;129(1):13-26. doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1328-z. Epub 2015 Jan 28.

Abstract

"Societal teleconnections" - analogous to physical teleconnections such as El Niño - are human-created linkages that link activities, trends, and disruptions across large distances, such that locations spatially separated from the locus of an event can experience a variety of impacts from it nevertheless. In the climate change context, such societal teleconnections add a layer of risk that is currently neither fully appreciated in most impacts or vulnerability assessments nor in on-the-ground adaptation planning. Conceptually, societal teleconnections arise from the interactions among , and the that guide their actions, affecting the movement of various through different and . Empirically, they arise out of societal interactions, including globalization, to create, amplify, and sometimes attenuate climate change vulnerabilities and impacts in regions far from those where a climatic extreme or change occurs. This paper introduces a simple but systematic way to conceptualize societal teleconnections and then highlights and explores eight unique but interrelated types of societal teleconnections with selected examples: (1) trade and economic exchange, (2) insurance and reinsurance, (3) energy systems, (4) food systems; (5) human health, (6) population migration, (7) communication, and (8) strategic alliances and military interactions. The paper encourages further research to better understand the causal chains behind socially teleconnected impacts, and to identify ways to routinely integrate their consideration in impacts/vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning to limit the risk of costly impacts.

摘要

“社会遥相关”——类似于诸如厄尔尼诺现象等物理遥相关——是人类创造的联系,它将远距离的活动、趋势和干扰联系起来,以至于在空间上与事件发生地分离的地点仍可能受到其各种影响。在气候变化背景下,这种社会遥相关增加了一层风险,目前在大多数影响或脆弱性评估以及实地适应规划中,这层风险都未得到充分认识。从概念上讲,社会遥相关源于各种行为体之间的相互作用以及指导其行动的规范,影响着各种行为体通过不同途径和机制的流动。从实证角度看,它们源自包括全球化在内的社会互动,在远离气候极端事件或变化发生地的地区造成、放大,有时还会减轻气候变化的脆弱性和影响。本文介绍了一种简单但系统的方法来概念化社会遥相关,然后通过选定的例子突出并探讨了八种独特但相互关联的社会遥相关类型:(1)贸易与经济交流,(2)保险与再保险,(3)能源系统,(4)粮食系统;(5)人类健康,(6)人口迁移,(7)通信,以及(8)战略联盟与军事互动。本文鼓励进一步开展研究,以更好地理解社会遥相关影响背后的因果链,并确定如何在影响/脆弱性评估和适应规划中常规性地纳入对它们的考虑,以限制产生代价高昂影响的风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/735f/7088147/10650330bef9/10584_2015_1328_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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