Relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure incidence: the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND

The relations of lipid concentrations to heart failure (HF) risk have not been elucidated comprehensively.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 6860 Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age, 44 years; 54% women) free of baseline coronary heart disease, we related high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and non-HDL-C to HF incidence during long-term follow-up, adjusting for clinical covariates and myocardial infarction at baseline and updating these at follow-up examinations. We evaluated dyslipidemia-specific population burden of HF by calculating population attributable risks. During follow-up (mean of 26 years), 680 participants (49% women) developed HF. Unadjusted HF incidence in the low (<160 mg/dL) versus high (> or =190 mg/dL) non-HDL-C groups was 7.9% and 13.8%, respectively, whereas incidence in the high (> or =55 [men], > or =65 [women] mg/dL) versus low (<40 [men], <50 [women] mg/dL) HDL-C groups was 6.1% and 12.8%, respectively. In multivariable models, baseline non-HDL-C and HDL-C, modeled as continuous measures, carried HF hazards (confidence intervals) of 1.19 (1.11 to 1.27) and 0.82 (0.75 to 0.90), respectively, per SD increment. In models updating lipid concentrations every 8 years, the corresponding hazards (confidence intervals) were 1.23 (1.16 to 1.31) and 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85). Participants with high baseline non-HDL-C and those with low HDL-C experienced a 29% and 40% higher HF risk, respectively, compared with those in the desirable categories; the population attributable risks for high non-HDL-C and low HDL-C were 7.5% and 15%, respectively. Hazards associated with non-HDL-C and HDL-C remained statistically significant after additional adjustment for interim myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

Dyslipidemia carries HF risk independent of its association with myocardial infarction, suggesting that lipid modification may be a means for reducing HF risk.