School of Public Health, University of alifornia, Berkeley, CA, USA.
School of Public Health, University of alifornia, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Lancet. 2009 Dec 19;374(9707):2091-2103. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61716-5. Epub 2009 Nov 26.
In this report we review the health effects of three short-lived greenhouse pollutants-black carbon, ozone, and sulphates. We undertook new meta-analyses of existing time-series studies and an analysis of a cohort of 352,000 people in 66 US cities during 18 years of follow-up. This cohort study provides estimates of mortality effects from long-term exposure to elemental carbon, an indicator of black carbon mass, and evidence that ozone exerts an independent risk of mortality. Associations among these pollutants make drawing conclusions about their individual health effects difficult at present, but sulphate seems to have the most robust effects in multiple-pollutant models. Generally, the toxicology of the pure compounds and their epidemiology diverge because atmospheric black carbon, ozone, and sulphate are associated and could interact with related toxic species. Although sulphate is a cooling agent, black carbon and ozone could together exert nearly half as much global warming as carbon dioxide. The complexity of these health and climate effects needs to be recognised in mitigation policies.
在本报告中，我们回顾了三种短寿命温室气体——黑碳、臭氧和硫酸盐——对健康的影响。我们对现有的时间序列研究进行了新的荟萃分析，并对美国 66 个城市的 35.2 万人进行了一项为期 18 年的随访队列研究。这项队列研究提供了长期暴露于元素碳（黑碳质量的一个指标）的死亡率影响的估计值，以及臭氧对死亡率有独立风险的证据。这些污染物之间的关联使得目前难以就它们各自的健康影响得出结论，但硫酸盐在多污染物模型中似乎具有最稳健的影响。一般来说，纯化合物的毒理学与其流行病学不同，因为大气中的黑碳、臭氧和硫酸盐是相关的，并且可能与相关的有毒物质相互作用。尽管硫酸盐是一种冷却剂，但黑碳和臭氧加起来对全球变暖的影响可能接近二氧化碳的一半。在缓解政策中需要认识到这些健康和气候影响的复杂性。
